I have always wanted to write an iRunFar-esque preview. So I went to their TNF50 preview as I do each year as it’s on at the same time as the Kepler. However I just don’t know enough about everyone in the field to name 57 men and 35 woman as people to content, win, podium, watch or not start. So I’ll keep it brief.

Last year 57th place male went to Wayne Ramage, he’s lining up again this year. Wayne is a Mosgiel local so as I write this he’s about 5km away at work, like I am supposed to be. He has plenty of experience with this being his 4th Kepler and has the goal that most of us who return regularly aim for, and that is to run a PB. I’ll bet a lazy $5 he lines up for his five year medal next year as well. Have a great day Wayne.

On the womans side, 35th place went to Cherie Richardson, but she doesn’t appear to be starting this year. The nearest I can find who is returning is Sally ‘The Gazelle’ Law. Word on the street is that Sally has been on a coaching program, so if conditions are favourable expect to see her run a PB.

Womans Field-

Ruby Muir winning the 2012 Kepler.

Last years 1st and 2nd, Ruby Muir and Beth Cardelli have been joined by the return of the record holder Zelah Morrall.

Ruby Muir – in 2012 Ruby (as far as I can tell) became the 2nd fastest woman at the Kepler with a 5:37:55. Since then, while injury hasn’t stopped her from winning it has hindered her desire to chase the race record of 5:23:34 set by Zelah in 2003. Ruby has spent the winter running Cross Country and Marathons, so barring anything going wrong, I suspect she will be motivated to push hard from the start and see what she can achieve.

Zelah Morrall – 5:40ish jogging around taking photos in 2002, followed by her race record and 2nd overall in 2003 before returning home to the UK never to be heard from again. Until now. It may well be 12 years since the race record, but THIS year she ran her Marathon PB of 2:47 in London, and October/November have seen her run two more in what I assume was a solid training block. Who knows what she will be capable of on Saturday, but the track will be in better condition and she is faster than when she set her record.

Unless Ruby or Zelah have other plans or some misfortune, the race will be between those two, a 5:30 or course record is possible.

Beth Cardelli – a fantastic and dominant year of running in the inaugural SkyrunningANZ series, a 6:07 last year but should go better than that. Exceptionally good climber and if the above two are conservative, Beth could take the QOM title.

Lizzie Wesley-Smith – 1st at Abel Tasman, 1st at Jumbo Holdsworth (Course Record) and plenty of marathon experience.

There haven’t been two woman break six hours since 2010. These four could.

Mens Field-

Martin Dent on his way to setting the Kepler course record in 2013.

The return of last years top three, plus 3x winner Vajin Armstrong and Australian David Byrne.

Martin Dent – All good journalist have sources, I’m not a journalist so I make stuff up, maybe. “Marty is in great shape. I reckon he’ll clear out early.”
When one of the contenders says that, you’d have to think that another 4:3x is on the cards of conditions play their part. Everyone else is running for 2nd.

Mark Green – 2nd last year, but I suspect will need to improve on 5:04 and is six foot track 3:20 earlier this year suggest that is possible.

Stafford Thompson – ran out to the swamp after Moturau then corrected himself only to start running back to Moturau before being further corrected by Mark Green. Clearly a man who knows how to run right to the very limit. Expect to see him push the 5 hour mark.

Vajin Armstrong – the 3x Champion with a 4:55pb is back. You’ll never die wondering if Vajin has been training hard, he very rarely has a bad day and is very self-aware of his strengths and weaknesses.

David Byrne – editor in chief at “The Long Run”. David is from the old school, where “elite” means you’ve been to World Champ or Olympics, not someone who wins back yard races. The former Strayan XC rep, has been quietly dipping his toe into trail running in the last couple of years, bit by bit. My pick is for Dave and Vajin to go hammer and tongs at each other with the result being a coin toss for 2nd.

Steven McKinstry- A name I’ve always wanted to see on the start list. He is a Three Peaks winner, 2 day coast to coast winner as an individual and teams, with a 4th fastest ever over the Mingha/Deception run.

QUIZ – who is the fastest Miler and 3000m runner in the field. He’s my dark horse for the top five.

Luxmore Grunt –

In the woman, expect to see Emma Rilen, Louisa Andrew and Shireen Crumpton to battling it out. In the men’s, it is likely to be a race between Tane Cambridge, Kirsten Day and Richard Ford.

Running the Kepler can be tricky and getting your pacing wrong can make the last section from Rainbow Reach long. Really messing up your pace and the run down the Iris Burn can be very very long. While seeing people implode so badly they are reduced to walking down hill has a certain entertainment value, what is far more entertaining is seeing people run to their full potential. So to help people cash in on the hard training Matt Bixley has made the tables below to help with pacing.

I deleted Facebook for a while, had some time out. Highly recommended and not even sure why I reactivated it. Perhaps it’s my lack of will power or OCD and like the Kepler, I keep coming back. About an hour into my return (edit: 23 minutes exactly) a request came in for splits on the Kepler, the 2^nd request for splits came in precisely 89 minutes after the 1^st. The 3^rd request ………

So here we are, my favourite time of year, pouring over useless bits of information about an arbitrary, but beautiful loop in a remote part of South-West New Zealand. With Kepler #11 about to be enjoyed with friends here is my best guess at the times you need to run for each section of the track. Actually it’s not a best guess, it is remarkably accurate given the constraints of variation in human performance. There are a lot of caveats and little old heteroscedasticity (look it up and try and say it, even better, try and use it in conversation one day J ) is a bit of an issue. I have data, I developed a model, I used terms like machine learning, k-fold, cross-validation. None of that means anything if you’re not reasonably fit, aware of your abilities and realistic about your goals.

Above Luxmore Hut

The run to Iris Burn should take just a little longer than the run from there to the finish. That should hold true for everyone in an ideal world. But the race is long, so getting things wrong is all too common. It’s all too easy to do the first half much harder than your skills dictate. I say skills, because even the fittest can outrun their abilities in the 1^st half, particularly in getting to Luxmore Hut. There is many a story of a 72 minute trip and 4^th place to Luxmore, followed by a grovel home in 6 plus hours.

Having goals is worthwhile, but the above tables should be used as a tool, not a target. If you have a time goal, but the split to Luxmore finds you putting in too much effort, you’d better give up on your goal and settle down. You have more chance of getting close to it if you let it go. If you keep pushing you will suffer. The 1st three quarters of the run HAS to feel comfortable and easy (read  My Way  to understand what I mean). Sometimes however, the risk of blowing up is worth it. Two of the three splits that I’ve tailored, are for specific, down to the minute goals, sometimes there is nothing more satisfying than the personal races between mates to beat their time. That holds true for the full length of the field, not just the Martin Dents. Speaking of whom, these are Martin Splits for his 2013 course record 4:33:37

Brod Bay – 20 min
Climb to Luxmore Hut – 44 min
Forest Burn – 26 min
Hanging Valley – 20 min
Iris Burn – 30 min
Rocky Point – 36 min
Moturau – 34 min
Rainbow Reach – 24 min
Finish – 39 Min

Some interesting things to note about those. Several 5+ hour runners get to Brod Bay in 21 minute each year. Phil Costley reached Luxmore 1 minute quicker in his record run and ran the last section 2 minutes quicker. Several people each year run 30-31 minutes for the descent to Iris Burn, ie Course record pace, slow down. Both Martin and Phil while not only talented, were clearly very aware of their own strengths and weaknesses and ran to those.

As an about to be unemployed statistician I should be selling this information. Offers of jobs, cash and beer would be greatly appreciated thanks. If anyone wants something specific and/or tailored to their skills and goals then let me know and I can work something out. email: mattbixley72@gmail.com

Accuracy: >95% if you run smart,

This weekend, in the Canterbury foothills, the final race in the inaugural New Zealand/ Australia Skyrunning Series will wrap up with the “Sky Rock n Run” on Mt Oxford. With 3600mD+ the race climbs from Coppers Creek, up to Mt Oxfords summit, down to the Whalfdale and then up to Black Hill. From here the course re-traces its steeps down Black Hill and back over Mt Oxford.

While I would love to offer a full blown preview, I 1) Don’t have time, 2) or have a start list……. Adrian puts on a good race, but is terrible at getting a starters list out

I for this reason don’t really know what woman are running. Beth Cardelli has the series sewn up and from what I hear, don’t expect to see her  racing at Oxford on Saturday. Whitney Dagg who won Mt Difficulty is out with injury and Jo Johansen just raced the Tarawera 50km, so unlikely they will be there either. It is wide open.

Expect Kellie Emmerson from Australia and local multisporter Sia Svendsen to duke it out for line honers.

Via the grapevine I have heard a few “names” that will be lining up in the men’s race-

Ben on his way to winning the Shotover Moonlight in 2014.

Ben Duffus is back! He owned the Hounslow Classic 6 weeks ago and more recently ran the 2nd fasted time ever at the Kawerau King of the Mountain- very very impressive. This is his, no doubt the “race” will be for 2nd. “If” Ben wins, the series shoudl be his.

John Winsbury stated months ago he was aiming for the series win and after his big win at Mt Difficulty it was all on. A injured toe ruled him out of Hounslow, which makes the series win that little bit harder, but still doable.

Expect Nick Hirschfeld (crazy fast Routeburn’s) and Brendon Bradley (2nd at the Mt Somers Marathon in October) to be in the mix also.

It should be a great finish to what has been a great fist ever Skyrunning Series down this way.

The second annual Air New Zealand Queenstown International Marathon takes place this coming Saturday morning and a record 9,000 athletes from all parts of NZ and the globe are lining up to contest one of the three distances on offer, these include the full marathon, the half marathon and the 10km dash!

The Marathon course follows a scenic point to point route from the picturesque Millbrook Resort and follows the Queenstown Trail’s Trust trail into central Queenstown, there is a good variety of trail and road to negotiate and a few gentle undulations along the way, it finishes in the Queenstown Recreation Ground.

This year will see a total of 2,000 athletes lining up for the Marathon distance, expect  fierce and exciting competition at the business  end of both the men’s and the women’s  race this year.

James Parsons crossing for the win in last years Qt Marathon. James is defending his title in 2015.

The men’s field includes last year’s winner James Parsons 28 of Napier who will be gunning to retain his title, with him is Hirotaka Tanimoto 30 of Wellington, Tanimoto won this year’s Christchurch Marathon, added into the mix are Stephen Lett 31 of Auckland, winner of the 2014 Auckland Marathon, and Wanaka triathlete Ben Logan 30, who is also raising funds for the Epilepsy Collective foundation, expect young Ben to lay his heart on the line for this personal campaign. Keep an eye too on Sweden runner Simon Karlsson 26 for a possible dark horse surprise result.

The women’s field is equally exciting on paper! It appears it will be a possible 4 way battle, with Australian based orthodontist Dr Vic Beck 33, last year’s marathon winner who has travelled back to retain her title,  she will have the evergreen Mel  Aitkin 38 a Police Inspector from Dunedin to contend with. Mel was second in this race last year, but she is something of a different runner now, with numerous NZ titles under her belt since last year, and plenty of experience to boot. Keeping both of these young ladies honest will be Yingjie Sun 36 from Beijing, China and Shannon-Leigh Litt 36 of Christchurch.

In the Half Marathon where, 5,000 athletes are lining up this yea,r it will be a battle royal in the men’s race between last year’s winner  Adam  Jaques  28 of Christchurch up against fellow Cantabrian Chris Dunell 28. But don’t be at all surprised if local Queenstowner  Thijs Hubber 32puts the pressure these two and wins the race, he is a fast and experienced athlete  and was 2^nd in the2015 Dunedin Marathon.

The women’s field sees the return of both the the winner of the 2014 Queenstown Half, Lizzie Spencer 30 of Christchurch and runner up Sarah Gardiner 39 also of Christchurch. Expect both these ladies to be at or close to the front pack with the very likely company of Australia’s Claire Ashworth 29 who has a Half PB of 1:16:17.

Best of luck to all the runners and let’s hope for better conditions from the weather gods for this years running.

This weekend the inaugural  running of the Hounslow Classic will take place in the Grose Valley of the Blue Mountains of Australia. The Hounslow is part of the 2015 ANZ Skyrunning Series and like the Buffalo Stampede back in April a strong crew of New Zealand runners will travel over to take on the best “skyrunners” in Australia.

Hounslow has 2 distances- 68km with 4100mD+ on the Saturday and 23km with 1700mD+ on the Sunday, with girls and guys from New Zealand likely to podium, if not take the win in both distances.

Ruby Muir, when fit and healthy, has the potential to win whenever she takes to a start line- no matter the distance or terrain. Most are well familiar with her trail/mountain running exploits, but over the last year Ruby has been running more and more road, in both training and events- winning this year’s Wellington Marathon in 2hr49. Ruby is running the 23km SkyRun at Hounslow as she works towards defending her Kepler Challenge title.

Kristian Day has also been focusing big on roads and speed as of late. From the outside looking in Kristian seems to be easily running the best he ever has, as he works towards the Auckland Marathon on the 1st of November. How this road forms transfers into a 23km trail race with 1700m vertical is another question, but I am sure he will be in the mix on Sunday.

Jo Johansen ground out a tough day at the Tarwera Ultra earlier in the year, but seems to be back on track and showing the form that saw her win the 2014 TuM and Hillary Ultras. Jo had solid outings at the Buffalo Stampede and Mt Difficulty Skyrunning races and recently won the  Kinloch Offroad Marathon. The Hounslow 68km course should play to Jo’s strengths!

Marty on his ways to placing 3rd at the Buffalo Stampede Ultra in April. Photo: Greg Robinson.

I think Marty Lukes was somewhat of an unknown to our brothers and sisters that occupy the West Island before the Buffalo Stampede Ultra earlier in the year. After placing 3rd (2nd in the Oceania Sky Running Champs) he goes into the Hounslow as the highest place getter from Buffalo. For the win, it will be a race between Marty, Ben Duffas and John Winsbury.

Other kiwis toeing the line-

Jean Beaumont is as tough as they come. A former Northburn 100mile winner and record holder. Add podium finish in her age group at the 2014 UTMB and a sub 25hr, 10th place at this years Leadville 100, Jean will be in mix.

Matt Bixely returns to Australia for his 3rd Skyrunning event on the West Island. I am sure he travels over for the smack-talking as much as he does for the runs themselves. Matt enjoys nothing more than damaging peoples egos and I expect there will be a bit of that come Saturday if he runs as well as he did at Mt Difficulty back in June.

Grant Guise- too much beer and not enough chocolate after walking and napping my way around UTMB for 35hrs, but I am looking forward to a fun day  in the Grose Valley all them same.

Experience mountain runner Andrew Town ventures north for his first run at the Abel Tasman Coastal Classic tomorrow and shares with us who might be in the mix tomorrow at the 22nd running of the Able Tasman Coastal Classic.

The Abel Tasman Coastal Classic first began in 1994 and quickly became one of New Zealand’s most popular Trail Runs. The reputation of the event, the location and its organisation continues to spread via word of mouth and it sells out every year, although not quite as quickly as that other South Island classic, the Kepler Challenge.

Top athletes are among the competitor tally over the years including Scott Molina, Erin Baker, Greg Fraine, Jonathan Wyatt, Tracy Clissold, Michelle Allison, Phil Costley and Rod Dixon (to name drop just a few).

Not surprisingly Phil Costley holds the current course record with a time of 2hours and 22 min set back in 2002. Not many runners (usually only the top 10) go under the magic 3 hour barrier on this undulating trail which includes some technical trail as well as sandy beaches to negotiate. This Saturday over 300 runners will converge to race the 36km Trail Run from Awaroa to Marahau along the renowned Abel Tasman National Park. “It’s been on my bucket list for a number of years, so I’m really excited to be heading up there for the 2016 event and it looks like a real adventure with a scenic boat trip from Marehau up the coast to the start line at Awaroa”.

A quick glance at the start list for 2016 shows a very strong women’s field including Lizzie Wesley-smith of Nelson who came home in under 3 hours last year with a time of 2 hours 54 minutes and Florence Van dyke of Auckland who was 3 hours flat. Fiona Jane Wright Hayvice will be competitive after a strong 2015, which has included a top 5 finish at the Tarawera 100km.

The men’s field looks wide open on paper with none of the top place getters from last year looking to return for the 2016 event. But watch for local veteran, Simon Mardon of Nelson, Matthew Clarke from Australia, Nigel Kirk of Wellington in the men’s 50-59 hard man Garry Jones from Christchurch who finished in a time of 3 hours and 7 min last year with Chris Gates from Nelson close behind.

Good luck everyone who is racing this year and I look forward to seeing you up there.

Snow, ice, mud, sun and plenty of soul searching. That more or less describes this weekend activities in Naseby. This isn’t an iRunFar Preview where everyone gets a mention (53 men and 36 women tipped for UTMB), so with 5 distances to choose from and 11 fields to look over I’m not going to cover a whole lot.

credit: Bruce Adams

The major event will always be the longest, and in the 100 miles beginning on Friday the man to beat will be Martin Lukes. There is however plenty of experience and enthusiasm chasing him and he will need to run well to beat the likes of Glenn Kelley, Adam Keen and Glenn Sutton. Glenn Kelley was in good shape at Mt Difficulty earlier this year and is pretty smart with how he approaches his runs. Glenn Sutton, like last year, will be fatigued by Badwater, but you know for a fact he’ll finish and if the legs are OK it will be in the 18 hour range. The dark horse in the field is Adam Keen, he can certainly run, hopefully he does it smart.

The womans field is wide open, but I’ve always been a fan of Koleighne Ford, right back from when we ran the original St James Ultra. Along with Marie Ford and Heather Barnes there could be some competition as the sun comes up in the morning. The other race that is wide open, is that for the wooden spoon. I’ll say right now that Norman Chan has his hand firmly on retaining the title. Why?? Because you know he will finish and will probably glide in just under the official cut-off. Speaking of which, how are you lot deciding the wooden spoon, Official Finish or just finish???

Tim Wright looks to be the favourite for the 100k and Shannon Litt might just take the overall win in the 80k. The 100k is actually the toughest race to finish, making the 6pm cut-off to start your last lap requires a consistent effort all day. 80 minute laps might seem easy but when you stack that up against 90 minute laps for a 24 hour hundred miles, it actually becomes quite hard.

The 50k looks like there will be a couple of guys duking it out in the 3:50 range, Paul Timothy will go out quickly but expect to see 72 minute half marathon runner Adam Carlson sitting there quite comfortably. Adam for the win.

Finally, down to the main event where the serious athletes appear. Think I’m joking, I’ll leave it for your homework to post the PBs of the Olympian lining up with his wife. Great to see them still enjoying their running. Possibly teams record there for the taking in the mixed and maybe even in the mens.

My personal highlight for the weekend, Helen Chignall lining up again, that makes every year for her. Have a great weekend, enjoy your runs, whatever the distance.

Quote: Jamie Sinclair “You’re all special, in both ways”

Vivien Cheng
credit: Richard Healy

The past three decades has seen many top class athletes cross the Tasman and compete in this prestigious mountain running challenge.  These have included runners of exceptional talent representing their nation at world level.

The field is limited to just 100 runners and they are picked from a nomination list by the Pomona race director, according to their experience and past results in the race.

A massive 10 thousand spectators line the length of the course to cheer, or in the case of the Kiwis, jeer them on their way.

This year the largest contingency of Kiwi runners ever, in the 30 year race history will make their presence known in Pomona with no fewer than 14 New Zealand runners heading over the ditch.

Defending Kawerau King, Shay Williamson is the favorite from New Zealand and this will be his fourth attempt in Pomona and the Kiwi hope of taking out the Pomona crown since last won by a New Zealander in 2005.

Shay a former full time possum hunter, now a farmer is a quiet natured young man that has a natural ability to pull a result out of the bag!

In the women’s race watch for Ruby Muir, she became the first ever female to go under the hour on debut in Kawerau (and barefooted in the final km).

This will be Muir’s debut in Pomona and comes off the back of her 2^nd Tarawera Ultra marathon (100km) and the Wellington Marathon titles earlier this year. She could win and win with a race record.

Update 24/07: Ruby is not running due to injury.

Hayden Wilde bolsters the NZ team as the first Kawerau junior in 2014.  Wilde has become a junior icon in the Eastern Bay of Plenty and a must watch across the New Zealand multisport circuit.  The shorter course will suit his speed.  Presently Wilde holds the NZ/Australasian U19 Multi Sport and NZ U23 Xterra Titles.  Watch out for this one.

In the veteran and masters race watch out for Colin Earwaker (former Veteran 50+ World mountain running champ) he is one elite athlete, an exceptional mountain runner and tough with it. Colin holds  numerous titles and records across the New Zealand and International running circuits and  is one of the most experienced mountain runners in the world, he will relish the opposition line up in this year’s Pomona KOM.

Colin will be up against the all-time great Barry Prosser 6 x Pomona KOM and 13 x Kawerau KOM title holder who to this day still holds the Kawerau record (45.54) set in 1988.

Barry will definitely be one to watch as he makes history once again.  To be on the start line with a runner of this calibre and level of achievement is truly an honour.  Barry represents what the Trans-Tasman relationship has bought to this race with 30 years of history and outstanding results.

Lastly to keep both of these legends in check will be AT, he’s attempting to roll both of these guys and take out the masters title in his 8^th outing at Pomona.

Almost all the snow would have been washed away from Mt Difficulty’s 1285m summit earlier this week, with a dusting currently falling on it now- but don’t hold your breath for much more than a few cm’s.

Andrius on his way to winning the TNF50km in May.

Andrius Ramonas is the clear stand out to take line honors on Saturday. Andrius is currently sitting in 3rd on ANZ Skyrunning pints table and expect him to move into 2nd after this weekend. His most recent win was at the TNF50km in Australia in May.

Expect John Winsbury and Ben Malby to be the closest to Andrius and round out the podium. After a few rough years with lung issues John is back at it- he was just warming up back in April in his 4th place finish in the Buffalo. Ben has had a few mixed runs lately, with dnf’s at the TuM 100km and TNF50km this year, so I expect he is ready to put up a good result!

Behind these 3 there are the likes of Matt Bixley, Tom Hunt, Andy Millard, Ned Kelly and Steve Neary, who will all duke it out and add good depth to the event.

Like the guys, the woman’s race has a strong front runner and a couple ready to ponce, but also a few “dark horse’s”.

Beth, Jo and Fiona at The Hillary- expect all 3 to feature on Saturday.

Australia’s Beth Cardelli has been in fine form with a win at The Hillary and then placed 2nd behind Landie Greyling at the Buffalo Stampede in April. Beth is a well experienced runner, having raced in European Skyrunning events and the Mt Difficulty course should pose no issues for her.

What might pose issues for Beth is the dynamic duo of Whitney Dagg and Jo Johansen. Whitney is back on track after a knee operation last year, while Jo’s running has been on the up since she has cut the mileage and upped the speed work under the watchful eye of  Kerry Suter. Whtney was running strong in 3rd at Buffalo behind Beth before she stopped due to stomach issues. Jo most recently won the T42.

Fiona Hayvice had a break out race at this years Tarawera 100km and then backed that up with a top 10 finish at the Buffalo Stampede- I expect another strong run for her.

2 girls lining up in their 1st Skyrunning race at Mel Aitken and Fleur Pawsey. Mel seems to be running (and pretty much winning, in record time) every race she can this summer. She clocked up another win at the Big Easy, a course record at the Motatapu Marathon and in May knocked 8mins off her marathon PB to run 2hr49 for 2nd at the Chch marathon. Fleur on the other hand has not raced as much- her last “big” running result (I think) was when she broked teh Naseby 100km record back in August 2014- but the MtD course will suit her well.

Andrew Town at last years Ascent.

In the Kids Fun Run, or “half marathon” as some are calling it, expect Old Man Town to back up his first place finish from last year, unless Gary Melhuish has developed a great talent for sandbagging and secret training.

In the ladies 1/2- Michelle Watt will be hard to beat- she was 4th at the NZ mountain running champs back in April.

Just chatting with the race director Terry Davies now- he is sounding fired up (but he always does….) and reports snow currently down to 700m on Mt Difficulty!