I have always wanted to write an iRunFar-esque preview. So I went to their TNF50 preview as I do each year as it’s on at the same time as the Kepler. However I just don’t know enough about everyone in the field to name 57 men and 35 woman as people to content, win, podium, watch or not start. So I’ll keep it brief.

Last year 57th place male went to Wayne Ramage, he’s lining up again this year. Wayne is a Mosgiel local so as I write this he’s about 5km away at work, like I am supposed to be. He has plenty of experience with this being his 4th Kepler and has the goal that most of us who return regularly aim for, and that is to run a PB. I’ll bet a lazy $5 he lines up for his five year medal next year as well. Have a great day Wayne.

On the womans side, 35th place went to Cherie Richardson, but she doesn’t appear to be starting this year. The nearest I can find who is returning is Sally ‘The Gazelle’ Law. Word on the street is that Sally has been on a coaching program, so if conditions are favourable expect to see her run a PB.

Womans Field-

Ruby Muir winning the 2012 Kepler.

Last years 1st and 2nd, Ruby Muir and Beth Cardelli have been joined by the return of the record holder Zelah Morrall.

Ruby Muir – in 2012 Ruby (as far as I can tell) became the 2nd fastest woman at the Kepler with a 5:37:55. Since then, while injury hasn’t stopped her from winning it has hindered her desire to chase the race record of 5:23:34 set by Zelah in 2003. Ruby has spent the winter running Cross Country and Marathons, so barring anything going wrong, I suspect she will be motivated to push hard from the start and see what she can achieve.

Zelah Morrall – 5:40ish jogging around taking photos in 2002, followed by her race record and 2nd overall in 2003 before returning home to the UK never to be heard from again. Until now. It may well be 12 years since the race record, but THIS year she ran her Marathon PB of 2:47 in London, and October/November have seen her run two more in what I assume was a solid training block. Who knows what she will be capable of on Saturday, but the track will be in better condition and she is faster than when she set her record.

Unless Ruby or Zelah have other plans or some misfortune, the race will be between those two, a 5:30 or course record is possible.

Beth Cardelli – a fantastic and dominant year of running in the inaugural SkyrunningANZ series, a 6:07 last year but should go better than that. Exceptionally good climber and if the above two are conservative, Beth could take the QOM title.

Lizzie Wesley-Smith – 1st at Abel Tasman, 1st at Jumbo Holdsworth (Course Record) and plenty of marathon experience.

There haven’t been two woman break six hours since 2010. These four could.

Mens Field-

Martin Dent on his way to setting the Kepler course record in 2013.

The return of last years top three, plus 3x winner Vajin Armstrong and Australian David Byrne.

Martin Dent – All good journalist have sources, I’m not a journalist so I make stuff up, maybe. “Marty is in great shape. I reckon he’ll clear out early.”
When one of the contenders says that, you’d have to think that another 4:3x is on the cards of conditions play their part. Everyone else is running for 2nd.

Mark Green – 2nd last year, but I suspect will need to improve on 5:04 and is six foot track 3:20 earlier this year suggest that is possible.

Stafford Thompson – ran out to the swamp after Moturau then corrected himself only to start running back to Moturau before being further corrected by Mark Green. Clearly a man who knows how to run right to the very limit. Expect to see him push the 5 hour mark.

Vajin Armstrong – the 3x Champion with a 4:55pb is back. You’ll never die wondering if Vajin has been training hard, he very rarely has a bad day and is very self-aware of his strengths and weaknesses.

David Byrne – editor in chief at “The Long Run”. David is from the old school, where “elite” means you’ve been to World Champ or Olympics, not someone who wins back yard races. The former Strayan XC rep, has been quietly dipping his toe into trail running in the last couple of years, bit by bit. My pick is for Dave and Vajin to go hammer and tongs at each other with the result being a coin toss for 2nd.

Steven McKinstry- A name I’ve always wanted to see on the start list. He is a Three Peaks winner, 2 day coast to coast winner as an individual and teams, with a 4th fastest ever over the Mingha/Deception run.

QUIZ – who is the fastest Miler and 3000m runner in the field. He’s my dark horse for the top five.

Luxmore Grunt –

In the woman, expect to see Emma Rilen, Louisa Andrew and Shireen Crumpton to battling it out. In the men’s, it is likely to be a race between Tane Cambridge, Kirsten Day and Richard Ford.

Snow, ice, mud, sun and plenty of soul searching. That more or less describes this weekend activities in Naseby. This isn’t an iRunFar Preview where everyone gets a mention (53 men and 36 women tipped for UTMB), so with 5 distances to choose from and 11 fields to look over I’m not going to cover a whole lot.

credit: Bruce Adams

The major event will always be the longest, and in the 100 miles beginning on Friday the man to beat will be Martin Lukes. There is however plenty of experience and enthusiasm chasing him and he will need to run well to beat the likes of Glenn Kelley, Adam Keen and Glenn Sutton. Glenn Kelley was in good shape at Mt Difficulty earlier this year and is pretty smart with how he approaches his runs. Glenn Sutton, like last year, will be fatigued by Badwater, but you know for a fact he’ll finish and if the legs are OK it will be in the 18 hour range. The dark horse in the field is Adam Keen, he can certainly run, hopefully he does it smart.

The womans field is wide open, but I’ve always been a fan of Koleighne Ford, right back from when we ran the original St James Ultra. Along with Marie Ford and Heather Barnes there could be some competition as the sun comes up in the morning. The other race that is wide open, is that for the wooden spoon. I’ll say right now that Norman Chan has his hand firmly on retaining the title. Why?? Because you know he will finish and will probably glide in just under the official cut-off. Speaking of which, how are you lot deciding the wooden spoon, Official Finish or just finish???

Tim Wright looks to be the favourite for the 100k and Shannon Litt might just take the overall win in the 80k. The 100k is actually the toughest race to finish, making the 6pm cut-off to start your last lap requires a consistent effort all day. 80 minute laps might seem easy but when you stack that up against 90 minute laps for a 24 hour hundred miles, it actually becomes quite hard.

The 50k looks like there will be a couple of guys duking it out in the 3:50 range, Paul Timothy will go out quickly but expect to see 72 minute half marathon runner Adam Carlson sitting there quite comfortably. Adam for the win.

Finally, down to the main event where the serious athletes appear. Think I’m joking, I’ll leave it for your homework to post the PBs of the Olympian lining up with his wife. Great to see them still enjoying their running. Possibly teams record there for the taking in the mixed and maybe even in the mens.

My personal highlight for the weekend, Helen Chignall lining up again, that makes every year for her. Have a great weekend, enjoy your runs, whatever the distance.

Quote: Jamie Sinclair “You’re all special, in both ways”

Vivien Cheng
credit: Richard Healy

Matt Bixely, aka “The Mouth of the South” has stepped up to give us an excellent insight to the 2012 Kepler Challenge woman’s field. Its is shaping up to be a great race, read on to find out why….

The head honcho at BCR has decided (rightly so) that I should write up the predictions form guide for this years’ women’s field. Rightly So, because he has no idea how they run. He’s usually been back to the hotel, showered and onto his 2^nd beer before they finish (note- NOT at all the opinion of BCR “head honcho”, quiet the opposite!). I on the other hand, run with, train with, beat and get beaten by them. I run like a girl. I did however finally beat them all last year.

In recent years at various races around the country when looking at the women’s field you’d be lucky to find more than 2 who are capable of winning a given race and picking the podium wasn’t a difficult task. The depth hasn’t existed and the Kepler has been no exception. Not so this year. The winners of the 3 previous events are all entered. Vanessa Haverd, Shireen Crumpton and defending champion Victoria Beck. They are joined by the likes of Sarah Biss, Elina Ussher, Fleur Lattimore, Johanna Ottosson, Jess Simson and Whitney Dagg. All of those women could expect to turn up any other year and get on the podium or even win.

As recently as 2007 the race was won in 6:17 while 3^rd place has been ranging between 6:07 and 6:30. This year expect to see 3^rd needing a 5:50 or better and the win will be 5:40 or better. Which means I’ll probably lose my F1 ranking.

Who’s Who and what could they run.

Victoria Beck – The defending champion, she has had more time to train this year so has put in some longer runs and does the end of them easily. I know, because when we get near home I struggle to hang on. Ran a 1:19 down in Invercargill last week and beat Shireen in a 10k early in the training block. Marathon PB of 2:45. Vic should and wants, to run faster this year.

Shireen Crumpton – 2010 champion with a 5:46. Injury, a helicopter from Rocky Point in 2011 and then surgery saw her early part to this year restricted. But a 2:52 in Auckland showed that she is making progress towards the speed she used have ie a 2:37 marathon. She refuses to come training with us because it’s too slow, rough and muddy. Fiercely competitive, Luxmore Grunt record holder so will have no problem getting to the top. Shireen won’t be happy without sub 5:50 and more like 5:40.

Vanessa Haverd – A win in 2009 followed by two 2nds, a PB of 5:52 she could easily run that again but I don’t think she’ll have the speed to win with the depth in the current field. She is, however, very consistent, experienced and will run near 6:00.

Sarah Biss – Probably deserving of the favourites tag even though she only dipped her toe into ultras for the 1^st time last weekend. Her 5:28 ‘jog’ for the 61km Taniwha suggests that if all goes well she could threaten the womens race record of 5:23. Sarah spent our winter in Europe racing and preparing for the World Long Course Mountain Running champs before injury ruined her day. If that stays away she could well run a large portion of the race with the leading men. Her marathon PB of 2:39 was run earlier this year. She is the fastest in the field.

Elina Ussher – Elina doesn’t really need a bio written. More at home on a bike, in a boat, off track or racing around the world. Elina will have better endurance than probably any other person in the field. She will lack the speed required in the 2^nd half to win but will run down a hell of a lot of guys who go out too hard and could do enough to get on the podium, in other years she would win. She has a predicted time of 5:50

Fleur Lattimore – No predicted time!!!! A real dark horse. Fleur won the Loop the Lake and finished 2^nd in the Abel Tasman earlier this year. Has been adventure racing so endurance won’t be a problem, but may lack the experience of running a very long way. She comes from a household where hard work on the sports field is the norm. Husband Ralph Lattimore was a long time NZ Basketball Rep.

Johanna Ottosson – Has a 2:45 marathon under her belt and a number of others around 2:50. That sort of form is good for a 5:50 or better (predicted 5:55). Trails are not new to her as she won the BigO earlier in the year. She shares the same coach as Vic Beck and I think she’s a real contender for the podium.

Whitney Dagg – Whitney has suffered with ITB issues for a while, but managed to string it all together and smash the woman’s record at the Routeburn earlier in the year. Solid runs at the Naseby 50 and then backing up with the Dunedin Marathon means she has the miles done, but won’t have the speed for this year’s field. Her current form would have her on the podium in other years.

Jess Simson – I have no idea where to place Jess in the mix. She doesn’t do standard running races. She won last year’s Luxmore Grunt in 2:18. I don’t think she’s suited to running fast. She is from the same mould as Elina Usher. I saw first hand how strong Jess is in the hills at the 2011 Motatapu Adventure run. An hour into the day and she was towing her male team mate up the first big climb, leading the race outright while the rest of us sat back and speculated about when they would blow up. They finished 2^nd outright. Jess returned with Baz Smith this year and smashed Martin Lukes/Gavin Hawkes course record by ½ an hour. 2^nd place that day was Phil Wood and Ross Rotheram who have both run well under 6:00 hours in Te Anau. I don’t know where she’ll finish, could be on the podium, could be 10^th. She is freakishly strong.

So from that list we have at least 6 women who have run near, under or predicted a 5:50. That’s 6 women who probably think they have a genuine chance of winning if things go their way.